Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. logo BFAM - Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 8
HOLD 10
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $95.57 DETAILS
HIGH: $112.00
LOW: $70.00
MEDIAN: $99.00
CONSENSUS: $95.57
UPSIDE: 27.84%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 9.3% below fair value
Current Price $74.76
Bear Case $48.71 34.8% downside ($48.71 - $74.76) / $74.76 = -34.8% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $82.42 10.2% upside ($82.42 - $74.76) / $74.76 = 10.2% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $116.98 56.5% upside ($116.98 - $74.76) / $74.76 = 56.5% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 23.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) 11.3% vs our 11.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $95.57 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $82.42 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions