Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc. logo BFAM - Bright Horizons Family Solutions Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 10
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $78.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $88.00
LOW: $68.00
MEDIAN: $78.00
CONSENSUS: $78.00
UPSIDE: 11.03%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 25.3% below fair value
Current Price $70.25
Bear Case $57.12 18.7% downside ($57.12 - $70.25) / $70.25 = -18.7% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $94.10 34.0% upside ($94.10 - $70.25) / $70.25 = 34.0% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $132.14 88.1% upside ($132.14 - $70.25) / $70.25 = 88.1% 15% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

11.8%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (12% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 40%
Implied Market Multiple 20.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 9.0% vs our 11.8% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 12% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $94.10 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (20 analysts) $78.00
Analyst Range $68.00 – $88.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 21%

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions