Brown-Forman Corporation logo BF-B - Brown-Forman Corporation

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STRONG
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0
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HOLD 24
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 10.1% below fair value
Current Price $28.88
Bear Case $27.54 4.6% downside ($27.54 - $28.88) / $28.88 = -4.6% $1.53 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $32.13 11.3% upside ($32.13 - $28.88) / $28.88 = 11.3% $1.53 × 21x P/E
Bull Case $36.72 27.1% upside ($36.72 - $28.88) / $28.88 = 27.1% $1.53 × 24x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.0x
1.53$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (21x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 21x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.53, the base-case value is $32.13 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples