Franklin Resources, Inc. logo BEN - Franklin Resources, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 16
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $31.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $34.00
LOW: $28.00
MEDIAN: $31.00
CONSENSUS: $31.00
DOWNSIDE: 0.06%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 11.5% below fair value
Current Price $31.02
Bear Case $24.53 20.9% downside ($24.53 - $31.02) / $31.02 = -20.9% ROTCE 20.0% → 1.77x TBV
Fair Value $35.05 13.0% upside ($35.05 - $31.02) / $31.02 = 13.0% ROTCE 25.0% → 2.96x TBV
Bull Case $45.56 46.9% upside ($45.56 - $31.02) / $31.02 = 46.9% ROTCE 30.0% → 2.87x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

30.8%
13.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (30.8%) vs. cost of equity (13.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 9.45x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $31.00 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $35.05 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $12.68 (65% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly