Franklin Resources, Inc. logo BEN - Franklin Resources, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 16
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $34.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $35.00
LOW: $34.00
MEDIAN: $34.00
CONSENSUS: $34.25
UPSIDE: 2.42%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 6.8% below fair value
Current Price $33.44
Bear Case $25.10 24.9% downside ($25.10 - $33.44) / $33.44 = -24.9% ROTCE 20.0% → 1.78x TBV
Fair Value $35.86 7.2% upside ($35.86 - $33.44) / $33.44 = 7.2% ROTCE 25.0% → 2.99x TBV
Bull Case $46.62 39.4% upside ($46.62 - $33.44) / $33.44 = 39.4% ROTCE 30.0% → 2.90x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

30.8%
13.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (30.8%) vs. cost of equity (13.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 10.19x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $34.25 from 27 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $35.86 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Dividend-based valuation: $12.78 (65% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly