Franklin Resources, Inc. logo BEN - Franklin Resources, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 16
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $35.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $40.00
LOW: $34.00
MEDIAN: $35.00
CONSENSUS: $35.67
UPSIDE: 15.14%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 14.9% below fair value
Current Price $30.98
Bear Case $25.48 17.8% downside ($25.48 - $30.98) / $30.98 = -17.8% ROTCE 20.0% → 1.78x TBV
Fair Value $36.40 17.5% upside ($36.40 - $30.98) / $30.98 = 17.5% ROTCE 25.0% → 2.34x TBV
Bull Case $47.32 52.7% upside ($47.32 - $30.98) / $30.98 = 52.7% ROTCE 30.0% → 2.90x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

30.8%
13.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (30.8%) vs. cost of equity (13.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 9.23x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 30.8% vs. 13.0% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.34x on $3.36 tangible book, implying $36.40 per share. DDM cross-check: $12.85.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (27 analysts) $35.67
Analyst Range $34.00 – $40.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 2%

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $12.85 (65% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly