Beacon Roofing Supply, Inc. logo BECN - Beacon Roofing Supply, Inc.

Inactive Ticker BECN is not actively trading. Quotes and analytics may be stale.
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 551.8% above fair value
Current Price $124.17
Bear Case $13.97 88.7% downside ($13.97 - $124.17) / $124.17 = -88.7% $1.27 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $19.05 84.7% downside ($19.05 - $124.17) / $124.17 = -84.7% $1.27 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $24.13 80.6% downside ($24.13 - $124.17) / $124.17 = -80.6% $1.27 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
1.27$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.27)

Implied Market Multiple 97.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $1.27 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $19.05 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 110.4x.

Warnings

⚠ This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
⚠ Price-to-book value of 110.4x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing