AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Beacon Roofing Supply, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag BECN as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Beacon Roofing Supply, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for BECN is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value BECN?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from BECN's most recent reported fundamentals.

BECN - Beacon Roofing Supply, Inc.

Price: -- --

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 519.8% above fair value

Current Price $124.17

Bear Case $14.95 88.0% downside ($14.95 - $124.17) / $124.17 = -88.0% $1.27 × 14x + net cash

Fair Value $20.03 83.9% downside ($20.03 - $124.17) / $124.17 = -83.9% $1.27 × 18x + net cash

Bull Case $25.11 79.8% downside ($25.11 - $124.17) / $124.17 = -79.8% $1.27 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

Cycle P/E Multiple

18.0x

Normalized EPS

1.27$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($1.27)

Implied Market Multiple 97.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Using 7-year normalized EPS of $1.27 at a 18x cycle multiple, the base-case value is $20.03 per share. P/TBV cross-check: 25.6x.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 25.6x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing