Becton, Dickinson and Company logo BDX - Becton, Dickinson and Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 16
HOLD 17
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $186.88 DETAILS
HIGH: $210.00
LOW: $159.00
MEDIAN: $190.00
CONSENSUS: $186.88
DOWNSIDE: 1.71%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 117.4% above fair value
Current Price $190.14
Bear Case $69.96 63.2% downside ($69.96 - $190.14) / $190.14 = -63.2% $5.83 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $87.45 54.0% downside ($87.45 - $190.14) / $190.14 = -54.0% $5.83 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $104.94 44.8% downside ($104.94 - $190.14) / $190.14 = -44.8% $5.83 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
5.83$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 32.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $5.83, the base-case value is $87.45 per share. DDM cross-check: $104.65.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (34 analysts) $186.88
Analyst Range $159.00 – $210.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 53%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $186.88 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples