Becton, Dickinson and Company logo BDX - Becton, Dickinson and Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 16
HOLD 17
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $177.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $204.00
LOW: $159.00
MEDIAN: $175.00
CONSENSUS: $177.00
UPSIDE: 11.90%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 29.6% above fair value
Current Price $158.17
Bear Case $97.64 38.3% downside ($97.64 - $158.17) / $158.17 = -38.3% $6.57 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $122.05 22.8% downside ($122.05 - $158.17) / $158.17 = -22.8% $6.57 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $146.46 7.4% downside ($146.46 - $158.17) / $158.17 = -7.4% $6.57 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
6.57$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 24.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $177.00 from 34 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $122.05 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $177.00 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples