Becton, Dickinson and Company logo BDX - Becton, Dickinson and Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 16
HOLD 17
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $173.19 DETAILS
HIGH: $204.00
LOW: $159.00
MEDIAN: $168.01
CONSENSUS: $173.19
UPSIDE: 17.31%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 22.1% above fair value
Current Price $147.63
Bear Case $96.73 34.5% downside ($96.73 - $147.63) / $147.63 = -34.5% $6.57 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $120.91 18.1% downside ($120.91 - $147.63) / $147.63 = -18.1% $6.57 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $145.09 1.7% downside ($145.09 - $147.63) / $147.63 = -1.7% $6.57 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
6.57$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 22.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $173.19 from 34 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $120.91 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $173.19 (from 34 analysts). Our estimate is 43% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples