Belden Inc. logo BDC - Belden Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 2
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $150.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $150.00
LOW: $150.00
MEDIAN: $150.00
CONSENSUS: $150.00
UPSIDE: 41.47%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 18.7% above fair value
Current Price $106.03
Bear Case $60.16 43.3% downside ($60.16 - $106.03) / $106.03 = -43.3% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $89.32 15.8% downside ($89.32 - $106.03) / $106.03 = -15.8% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $117.33 10.7% upside ($117.33 - $106.03) / $106.03 = 10.7% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

9.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 26.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $150.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $89.32 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $150.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 51% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions