Belden Inc. logo BDC - Belden Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 11
HOLD 2
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $155.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $155.00
LOW: $155.00
MEDIAN: $155.00
CONSENSUS: $155.00
UPSIDE: 53.01%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 12.2% above fair value
Current Price $101.30
Bear Case $60.83 40.0% downside ($60.83 - $101.30) / $101.30 = -40.0% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $90.32 10.8% downside ($90.32 - $101.30) / $101.30 = -10.8% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $118.64 17.1% upside ($118.64 - $101.30) / $101.30 = 17.1% 12% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

9.2%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (9% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 38%
Implied Market Multiple 25.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 12.3% vs our 9.2% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $155.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $90.32 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $155.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions