BDC - Belden Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$155.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$155.00
LOW:
$155.00
MEDIAN:
$155.00
CONSENSUS:
$155.00
UPSIDE:
53.01%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Platform & Compounding FCF
50% confidence
Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF
Adjust Assumptions
9.2%
11.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (9% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
38%
Implied Market Multiple
25.6x
Market is pricing in (growth)
12.3%
vs our 9.2% base
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $155.00 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $90.32 per share.
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $155.00 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 52% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions