Boise Cascade Company logo BCC - Boise Cascade Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 4
HOLD 6
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $94.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $97.00
LOW: $92.00
MEDIAN: $94.50
CONSENSUS: $94.50
UPSIDE: 21.62%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 59.6% below fair value
Current Price $77.70
Bear Case $149.40 92.3% upside ($149.40 - $77.70) / $77.70 = 92.3% $12.12 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $192.40 147.6% upside ($192.40 - $77.70) / $77.70 = 147.6% $12.12 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $235.41 203.0% upside ($235.41 - $77.70) / $77.70 = 203.0% $12.12 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
12.12$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($12.12)

Implied Market Multiple 6.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $94.50 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $192.40 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $94.50 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 130% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing