BCB Bancorp, Inc. logo BCBP - BCB Bancorp, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $9.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $9.00
LOW: $9.00
MEDIAN: $9.00
CONSENSUS: $9.00
DOWNSIDE: 9.18%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 51.4% below fair value
Current Price $9.91
Bear Case $14.28 44.1% upside ($14.28 - $9.91) / $9.91 = 44.1% ROTCE 4.0% → 0.30x TBV
Fair Value $20.40 105.9% upside ($20.40 - $9.91) / $9.91 = 105.9% ROTCE -4.2% → 0.30x TBV
Bull Case $26.52 167.6% upside ($26.52 - $9.91) / $9.91 = 167.6% ROTCE -4.8% → 0.30x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

-4.2%
8.1%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (-4.2%) vs. cost of equity (8.1%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.58x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of -4.2% vs. 8.1% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 0.30x on $17.22 tangible book, implying $20.40 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
⚠ Return on equity (-4.2%) is below the minimum investors require (8.1%). This means the bank is worth less than the net assets on its books.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly