Brunswick Corporation logo BC - Brunswick Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 22
HOLD 9
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $87.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $94.00
LOW: $76.00
MEDIAN: $86.00
CONSENSUS: $87.00
UPSIDE: 8.86%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 118.8% above fair value
Current Price $79.92
Bear Case $14.61 81.7% downside ($14.61 - $79.92) / $79.92 = -81.7% $5.96 × 4x + net cash
Fair Value $36.53 54.3% downside ($36.53 - $79.92) / $79.92 = -54.3% $5.96 × 6x + net cash
Bull Case $58.45 26.9% downside ($58.45 - $79.92) / $79.92 = -26.9% $5.96 × 7x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

5.5x
5.96$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($5.96)

Implied Market Multiple 13.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $87.00 from 31 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $36.53 per share.

Warnings

This company has a built-in lending arm whose debt is mixed in with the main business. We capped the debt adjustment to avoid overstating what the core business owes.
Price-to-book value of 58.0x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.
Wall Street's average price target is $87.00 (from 31 analysts). Our estimate is 83% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing