Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. logo BBW - Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $70.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $70.00
LOW: $70.00
MEDIAN: $70.00
CONSENSUS: $70.00
UPSIDE: 85.48%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 55.5% below fair value
Current Price $37.74
Bear Case $74.19 96.6% upside ($74.19 - $37.74) / $37.74 = 96.6% $3.99 × 19x P/E
Fair Value $84.79 124.7% upside ($84.79 - $37.74) / $37.74 = 124.7% $3.99 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $95.39 152.8% upside ($95.39 - $37.74) / $37.74 = 152.8% $3.99 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.2x
3.99$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 9.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $70.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $84.79 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $70.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 26% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples