Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. logo BBW - Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $37.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $37.00
LOW: $37.00
MEDIAN: $37.00
CONSENSUS: $37.00
UPSIDE: 23.95%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 66.3% below fair value
Current Price $29.85
Bear Case $77.43 159.4% upside ($77.43 - $29.85) / $29.85 = 159.4% $3.99 × 19x P/E
Fair Value $88.49 196.4% upside ($88.49 - $29.85) / $29.85 = 196.4% $3.99 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $99.55 233.5% upside ($99.55 - $29.85) / $29.85 = 233.5% $3.99 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.2x
3.99$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 7.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.99, the base-case value is $88.49 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $37.00
Analyst Range $37.00 – $37.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 139%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $37.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 139% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples