Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. logo BBW - Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $38.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $40.00
LOW: $37.00
MEDIAN: $38.50
CONSENSUS: $38.50
UPSIDE: 55.30%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 72.0% below fair value
Current Price $24.79
Bear Case $77.43 212.3% upside ($77.43 - $24.79) / $24.79 = 212.3% $3.99 × 19x P/E
Fair Value $88.49 256.9% upside ($88.49 - $24.79) / $24.79 = 256.9% $3.99 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $99.55 301.6% upside ($99.55 - $24.79) / $24.79 = 301.6% $3.99 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.2x
3.99$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 6.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $3.99, the base-case value is $88.49 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (11 analysts) $38.50
Analyst Range $37.00 – $40.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 130%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $38.50 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 130% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples