Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc. logo BBW - Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 3
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $60.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $60.00
LOW: $60.00
MEDIAN: $60.00
CONSENSUS: $60.00
UPSIDE: 77.91%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 59.3% below fair value
Current Price $33.73
Bear Case $72.44 114.8% upside ($72.44 - $33.73) / $33.73 = 114.8% $3.99 × 19x P/E
Fair Value $82.79 145.5% upside ($82.79 - $33.73) / $33.73 = 145.5% $3.99 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $93.14 176.2% upside ($93.14 - $33.73) / $33.73 = 176.2% $3.99 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.2x
3.99$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 8.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $60.00 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $82.79 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $60.00 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 47% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples