Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. logo BBVA - Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 5
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 20.3% below fair value
Current Price $26.52
Bear Case $22.78 14.1% downside ($22.78 - $26.52) / $26.52 = -14.1% ROTCE 14.5% → 2.03x TBV
Fair Value $33.27 25.5% upside ($33.27 - $26.52) / $26.52 = 25.5% ROTCE 19.3% → 2.96x TBV
Bull Case $39.57 49.2% upside ($39.57 - $26.52) / $26.52 = 49.2% ROTCE 22.2% → 3.53x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

19.3%
9.2%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (19.3%) vs. cost of equity (9.2%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.36x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 19.3% vs. 9.2% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.96x on $11.22 tangible book, implying $33.27 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1390 USD per EUR.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly