Barrett Business Services, Inc. logo BBSI - Barrett Business Services, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $46.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $46.00
LOW: $46.00
MEDIAN: $46.00
CONSENSUS: $46.00
UPSIDE: 17.47%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 9.4% above fair value
Current Price $39.16
Bear Case $30.18 22.9% downside ($30.18 - $39.16) / $39.16 = -22.9% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $35.81 8.6% downside ($35.81 - $39.16) / $39.16 = -8.6% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $40.94 4.6% upside ($40.94 - $39.16) / $39.16 = 4.6% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.1%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 21.0x
Market is pricing in (growth) 9.7% vs our 7.1% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $46.00 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $35.81 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $46.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 28% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions