Barrett Business Services, Inc. logo BBSI - Barrett Business Services, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $40.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $44.00
LOW: $38.00
MEDIAN: $38.00
CONSENSUS: $40.00
UPSIDE: 16.38%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 2.6% above fair value
Current Price $34.37
Bear Case $28.22 17.9% downside ($28.22 - $34.37) / $34.37 = -17.9% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $33.50 2.5% downside ($33.50 - $34.37) / $34.37 = -2.5% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $38.30 11.4% upside ($38.30 - $34.37) / $34.37 = 11.4% 9% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.1%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 36%
Implied Market Multiple 17.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) 7.5% vs our 7.1% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 7% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $33.50 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (5 analysts) $40.00
Analyst Range $38.00 – $44.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 16%

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions