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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 12
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $10.43 DETAILS
HIGH: $13.00
LOW: $8.00
MEDIAN: $9.50
CONSENSUS: $10.43
UPSIDE: 10.62%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 387.3% above fair value
Current Price $9.43
Bear Case $1.62 82.8% downside ($1.62 - $9.43) / $9.43 = -82.8% $0.09 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $1.93 79.5% downside ($1.93 - $9.43) / $9.43 = -79.5% $0.09 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $2.25 76.1% downside ($2.25 - $9.43) / $9.43 = -76.1% $0.09 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.5x
0.09$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 104.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.09, the base-case value is $1.93 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (14 analysts) $10.43
Analyst Range $8.00 – $13.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 81%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $10.43 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 81% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples