BlackBerry Limited logo BB - BlackBerry Limited

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 12
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $10.54 DETAILS
HIGH: $13.00
LOW: $8.00
MEDIAN: $10.30
CONSENSUS: $10.54
UPSIDE: 25.18%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 9.0% above fair value
Current Price $8.42
Bear Case $6.47 23.2% downside ($6.47 - $8.42) / $8.42 = -23.2% $0.33 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $7.72 8.3% downside ($7.72 - $8.42) / $8.42 = -8.3% $0.33 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $8.99 6.8% upside ($8.99 - $8.42) / $8.42 = 6.8% $0.33 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.5x
0.33$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 25.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $10.54 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $7.72 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 263%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Wall Street's average price target is $10.54 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 33% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples