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Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 2
HOLD 12
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $10.54 DETAILS
HIGH: $13.00
LOW: $8.00
MEDIAN: $10.30
CONSENSUS: $10.54
UPSIDE: 38.23%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 294.1% above fair value
Current Price $7.62
Bear Case $1.62 78.8% downside ($1.62 - $7.62) / $7.62 = -78.8% $0.09 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $1.93 74.6% downside ($1.93 - $7.62) / $7.62 = -74.6% $0.09 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $2.25 70.5% downside ($2.25 - $7.62) / $7.62 = -70.5% $0.09 × 25x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

21.5x
0.09$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 84.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.09, the base-case value is $1.93 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (14 analysts) $10.54
Analyst Range $8.00 – $13.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 82%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $10.54 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 82% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples