Baxter International Inc. logo BAX - Baxter International Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 15
HOLD 19
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $20.86 DETAILS
HIGH: $27.00
LOW: $17.00
MEDIAN: $20.00
CONSENSUS: $20.86
DOWNSIDE: 7.78%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 39.4% below fair value
Current Price $22.62
Bear Case $29.86 32.0% upside ($29.86 - $22.62) / $22.62 = 32.0% $2.96 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $37.32 65.0% upside ($37.32 - $22.62) / $22.62 = 65.0% $2.96 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $44.78 98.0% upside ($44.78 - $22.62) / $22.62 = 98.0% $2.96 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.96$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 7.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $20.86 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $37.32 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $20.86 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 113% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples