BAX - Baxter International Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$20.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$27.00
LOW:
$15.00
MEDIAN:
$19.50
CONSENSUS:
$20.00
UPSIDE:
4.28%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Distressed or Transitioning
75% confidence
Primary model: Current FCF × Depressed Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
6.0x
Key Value Driver
Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired
Implied Market Multiple
55.6x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses Current FCF × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $20.00 from 36 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $6.00 per share.
Warnings
Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Debt per share ($15.56) is more than half the stock price. With this much debt on a struggling business, the paths to recovery for shareholders are narrow.
Wall Street's average price target is $20.00 (from 36 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
- M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
- Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case