Banner Corporation logo BANR - Banner Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 10
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $70.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $70.00
LOW: $70.00
MEDIAN: $70.00
CONSENSUS: $70.00
UPSIDE: 8.28%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 20.8% below fair value
Current Price $64.65
Bear Case $57.18 11.6% downside ($57.18 - $64.65) / $64.65 = -11.6% ROTCE 9.3% → 1.07x TBV
Fair Value $81.68 26.3% upside ($81.68 - $64.65) / $64.65 = 26.3% ROTCE 12.4% → 1.70x TBV
Bull Case $106.18 64.2% upside ($106.18 - $64.65) / $64.65 = 64.2% ROTCE 14.3% → 2.07x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

12.4%
9.0%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.4%) vs. cost of equity (9.0%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $70.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $81.68 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $36.47 (57% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly