Banner Corporation logo BANR - Banner Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 3
HOLD 10
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $64.25 DETAILS
HIGH: $70.00
LOW: $53.00
MEDIAN: $67.00
CONSENSUS: $64.25
DOWNSIDE: 11.29%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 10.1% below fair value
Current Price $72.43
Bear Case $56.37 22.2% downside ($56.37 - $72.43) / $72.43 = -22.2% ROTCE 9.3% → 1.09x TBV
Fair Value $80.53 11.2% upside ($80.53 - $72.43) / $72.43 = 11.2% ROTCE 12.4% → 1.73x TBV
Bull Case $104.69 44.5% upside ($104.69 - $72.43) / $72.43 = 44.5% ROTCE 14.3% → 2.12x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

12.4%
8.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (12.4%) vs. cost of equity (8.9%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.57x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $64.25 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $80.53 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
ℹ Dividend-based valuation: $37.15 (56% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $64.25 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 32% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly