BancFirst Corporation logo BANF - BancFirst Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 2
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $125.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $125.00
LOW: $125.00
MEDIAN: $125.00
CONSENSUS: $125.00
UPSIDE: 7.22%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 19.0% below fair value
Current Price $116.58
Bear Case $94.37 19.0% downside ($94.37 - $116.58) / $116.58 = -19.0% ROTCE 10.9% → 1.92x TBV
Fair Value $143.97 23.5% upside ($143.97 - $116.58) / $116.58 = 23.5% ROTCE 14.6% → 2.93x TBV
Bull Case $173.73 49.0% upside ($173.73 - $116.58) / $116.58 = 49.0% ROTCE 16.8% → 3.54x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.6%
7.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.6%) vs. cost of equity (7.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.37x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 14.6% vs. 7.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.93x on $49.13 tangible book, implying $143.97 per share. DDM cross-check: $166.65.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly