AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies BancFirst Corporation as a Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers business and values it using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, then compares the result to the current market price to flag BANF as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is BancFirst Corporation's fair value?

Fair value for BANF comes from a P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value BANF?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. BANF was classified as Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers and is valued using P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality, built from BANF's most recent reported fundamentals.

BANF - BancFirst Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $125.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate

Trading 16.5% below fair value

Current Price $111.21

Bear Case $87.29 21.5% downside ($87.29 - $111.21) / $111.21 = -21.5% ROTCE 10.9% → 1.78x TBV

Fair Value $133.17 19.7% upside ($133.17 - $111.21) / $111.21 = 19.7% ROTCE 14.6% → 2.71x TBV

Bull Case $160.69 44.5% upside ($160.69 - $111.21) / $111.21 = 44.5% ROTCE 16.8% → 3.27x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

Return on Tangible Equity

14.6%

Cost of Equity

7.9%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.6%) vs. cost of equity (7.9%)

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 2.26x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 14.6% vs. 7.9% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.71x on $49.11 tangible book, implying $133.17 per share. DDM cross-check: $117.18.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.

⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly