BancFirst Corporation logo BANF - BancFirst Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 0
HOLD 2
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $95.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $95.00
LOW: $95.00
MEDIAN: $95.00
CONSENSUS: $95.00
DOWNSIDE: 14.65%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 21.9% below fair value
Current Price $111.31
Bear Case $93.38 16.1% downside ($93.38 - $111.31) / $111.31 = -16.1% ROTCE 10.9% → 1.90x TBV
Fair Value $142.45 28.0% upside ($142.45 - $111.31) / $111.31 = 28.0% ROTCE 14.6% → 2.90x TBV
Bull Case $171.90 54.4% upside ($171.90 - $111.31) / $111.31 = 54.4% ROTCE 16.8% → 3.50x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

14.6%
7.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (14.6%) vs. cost of equity (7.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.27x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 14.6% vs. 7.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.90x on $49.13 tangible book, implying $142.45 per share. DDM cross-check: $155.47.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly