Baidu, Inc. logo BAIDF - Baidu, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 32
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 19.8% above fair value
Current Price $12.10
Bear Case $8.08 33.2% downside ($8.08 - $12.10) / $12.10 = -33.2% $0.67 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $10.10 16.5% downside ($10.10 - $12.10) / $12.10 = -16.5% $0.67 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $12.12 0.2% upside ($12.12 - $12.10) / $12.10 = 0.2% $0.67 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
0.67$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 18.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.67, the base-case value is $10.10 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 207%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
Financial statements were converted from CNY into USD using USDCNY at 0.1490 USD per CNY.
This stock is 42% below its 52-week high, with weak or declining earnings. That combination often signals real trouble, even though the valuation below is based on other fundamentals.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples