Bank of America Corporation logo BAC-PB - Bank of America Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 19
HOLD 18
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $40.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $40.00
LOW: $40.00
MEDIAN: $40.00
CONSENSUS: $40.00
UPSIDE: 60.13%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 50.4% below fair value
Current Price $24.98
Bear Case $35.22 41.0% upside ($35.22 - $24.98) / $24.98 = 41.0% ROTCE 9.8% → 0.85x TBV
Fair Value $50.32 101.4% upside ($50.32 - $24.98) / $24.98 = 101.4% ROTCE 13.0% → 1.33x TBV
Bull Case $65.41 161.9% upside ($65.41 - $24.98) / $24.98 = 161.9% ROTCE 15.0% → 1.62x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

13.0%
10.8%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (13.0%) vs. cost of equity (10.8%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.49x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $40.00 from 39 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $50.32 per share.

Warnings

Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.
Wall Street's average price target is $40.00 (from 39 analysts). Our estimate is 37% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly