The Boeing Company logo BA - The Boeing Company

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 36
HOLD 13
SELL 5
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $277.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $295.00
LOW: $250.00
MEDIAN: $278.00
CONSENSUS: $277.00
UPSIDE: 26.91%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 72% confidence

Primary model: Current EPS × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 100.2% above fair value
Current Price $218.26
Bear Case $72.69 66.7% downside ($72.69 - $218.26) / $218.26 = -66.7% EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair Value $109.04 50.0% downside ($109.04 - $218.26) / $218.26 = -50.0% Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull Case $145.39 33.4% downside ($145.39 - $218.26) / $218.26 = -33.4% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x

Adjust Assumptions

7.5x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 88.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $277.00 from 54 analysts, using a 35% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $109.04 per share.

Warnings

Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Wall Street's average price target is $277.00 (from 54 analysts). Our estimate is 93% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case