AZZ Inc. logo AZZ - AZZ Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 6
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $150.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $155.00
LOW: $144.00
MEDIAN: $152.00
CONSENSUS: $150.33
UPSIDE: 0.81%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 34.7% below fair value
Current Price $149.12
Bear Case $177.57 19.1% upside ($177.57 - $149.12) / $149.12 = 19.1% 5% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $228.29 53.1% upside ($228.29 - $149.12) / $149.12 = 53.1% 8% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $275.39 84.7% upside ($275.39 - $149.12) / $149.12 = 84.7% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (8% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 11.6x
Market is pricing in (growth) 1.5% vs our 7.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $150.33 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $228.29 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $150.33 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 65% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions