Azenta, Inc. logo AZTA - Azenta, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $44.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $45.00
LOW: $44.00
MEDIAN: $44.50
CONSENSUS: $44.50
UPSIDE: 120.52%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current FCF × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 19.6% above fair value
Current Price $20.18
Bear Case $14.07 30.3% downside ($14.07 - $20.18) / $20.18 = -30.3% FCF continues to decline, 4x multiple
Fair Value $16.88 16.4% downside ($16.88 - $20.18) / $20.18 = -16.4% Current FCF stabilizes, 6x multiple
Bull Case $19.70 2.4% downside ($19.70 - $20.18) / $20.18 = -2.4% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 8x

Adjust Assumptions

6.0x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 18.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Current FCF × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $44.50 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $16.88 per share.

Warnings

Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Wall Street's average price target is $44.50 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 78% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case