Azenta, Inc. logo AZTA - Azenta, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $45.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $45.00
LOW: $45.00
MEDIAN: $45.00
CONSENSUS: $45.00
UPSIDE: 55.55%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 50.9% above fair value
Current Price $28.93
Bear Case $16.94 41.5% downside ($16.94 - $28.93) / $28.93 = -41.5% 4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $19.17 33.7% downside ($19.17 - $28.93) / $28.93 = -33.7% 7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $21.22 26.7% downside ($21.22 - $28.93) / $28.93 = -26.7% 10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.5%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 32%
Implied Market Multiple 48.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) 22.9% vs our 7.5% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $45.00 from 12 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $19.17 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $45.00 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 72% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions