AutoZone, Inc. logo AZO - AutoZone, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 32
HOLD 12
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $4,235.71 DETAILS
HIGH: $4,800.00
LOW: $3,600.00
MEDIAN: $4,312.50
CONSENSUS: $4,235.71
UPSIDE: 24.34%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 16.3% above fair value
Current Price $3406.50
Bear Case $2,562.60 24.8% downside ($2,562.60 - $3,406.50) / $3,406.50 = -24.8% $144.87 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $2,928.68 14.0% downside ($2,928.68 - $3,406.50) / $3,406.50 = -14.0% $144.87 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $3,294.77 3.3% downside ($3,294.77 - $3,406.50) / $3,406.50 = -3.3% $144.87 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.3x
144.87$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 23.5x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $4235.71 from 45 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $2928.68 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $4235.71 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples