Acuity Brands, Inc. logo AYI - Acuity Brands, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 14
HOLD 18
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $404.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $465.00
LOW: $358.00
MEDIAN: $390.00
CONSENSUS: $404.33
UPSIDE: 21.04%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 5.8% below fair value
Current Price $334.05
Bear Case $261.54 21.7% downside ($261.54 - $334.05) / $334.05 = -21.7% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $354.62 6.2% upside ($354.62 - $334.05) / $334.05 = 6.2% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $445.17 33.3% upside ($445.17 - $334.05) / $334.05 = 33.3% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

9.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 19.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) 8.9% vs our 9.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 10% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $354.62 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (33 analysts) $404.33
Analyst Range $358.00 – $465.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 12%

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions