Acuity Brands, Inc. logo AYI - Acuity Brands, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 14
HOLD 18
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $404.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $465.00
LOW: $358.00
MEDIAN: $390.00
CONSENSUS: $404.33
UPSIDE: 24.00%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 7.6% below fair value
Current Price $326.07
Bear Case $259.98 20.3% downside ($259.98 - $326.07) / $326.07 = -20.3% 6% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $352.97 8.3% upside ($352.97 - $326.07) / $326.07 = 8.3% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $443.44 36.0% upside ($443.44 - $326.07) / $326.07 = 36.0% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

9.7%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (10% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 39%
Implied Market Multiple 20.7x
Market is pricing in (growth) 9.5% vs our 9.7% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $404.33 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $352.97 per share.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions