Axon Enterprise, Inc. logo AXON - Axon Enterprise, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 17
HOLD 4
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $653.89 DETAILS
HIGH: $820.00
LOW: $440.00
MEDIAN: $690.00
CONSENSUS: $653.89
UPSIDE: 69.40%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 136.1% above fair value
Current Price $386.00
Bear Case $0.00 100.0% downside ($0.00 - $386.00) / $386.00 = -100.0% 12% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $163.47 57.6% downside ($163.47 - $386.00) / $386.00 = -57.6% 19% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $0.00 100.0% downside ($0.00 - $386.00) / $386.00 = -100.0% 25% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

19.5%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (19% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 0%

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $653.89 from 21 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $163.47 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 508% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.
ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $653.89 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 100% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions