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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 130.6% above fair value
Current Price $10.38
Bear Case $3.60 65.3% downside ($3.60 - $10.38) / $10.38 = -65.3% $0.20 × 18x P/E
Fair Value $4.50 56.6% downside ($4.50 - $10.38) / $10.38 = -56.6% $0.20 × 22x P/E
Bull Case $5.40 48.0% downside ($5.40 - $10.38) / $10.38 = -48.0% $0.20 × 27x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

22.5x
0.2$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (22x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 51.9x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 22x P/E to adjusted EPS of $0.20, the base-case value is $4.50 per share.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples