Axos Financial, Inc. logo AX - Axos Financial, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 10
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $111.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $112.00
LOW: $110.00
MEDIAN: $111.00
CONSENSUS: $111.00
UPSIDE: 28.96%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 6.8% below fair value
Current Price $86.07
Bear Case $64.67 24.9% downside ($64.67 - $86.07) / $86.07 = -24.9% ROTCE 12.9% → 1.19x TBV
Fair Value $92.39 7.3% upside ($92.39 - $86.07) / $86.07 = 7.3% ROTCE 17.2% → 1.77x TBV
Bull Case $120.11 39.6% upside ($120.11 - $86.07) / $86.07 = 39.6% ROTCE 19.8% → 2.11x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

17.2%
11.5%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (17.2%) vs. cost of equity (11.5%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.94x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $111.00 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $92.39 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly