Avient Corporation logo AVNT - Avient Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 12
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $47.80 DETAILS
HIGH: $56.00
LOW: $41.00
MEDIAN: $47.00
CONSENSUS: $47.80
UPSIDE: 39.32%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 3.8% below fair value
Current Price $34.31
Bear Case $28.54 16.8% downside ($28.54 - $34.31) / $34.31 = -16.8% $2.11 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $35.66 3.9% upside ($35.66 - $34.31) / $34.31 = 3.9% $2.11 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $42.79 24.7% upside ($42.79 - $34.31) / $34.31 = 24.7% $2.11 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
2.11$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 16.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $47.80 from 20 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $35.66 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 137%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 123% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Dividend-based valuation: $24.92 (below our primary estimate by 21%). Large gaps may signal the dividend doesn't reflect full earning power.
Wall Street's average price target is $47.80 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples