Avient Corporation logo AVNT - Avient Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 13
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $47.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $54.00
LOW: $43.00
MEDIAN: $47.00
CONSENSUS: $47.75
UPSIDE: 7.52%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 65% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 78.4% above fair value
Current Price $44.41
Bear Case $19.92 55.1% downside ($19.92 - $44.41) / $44.41 = -55.1% $1.66 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $24.90 43.9% downside ($24.90 - $44.41) / $44.41 = -43.9% $1.66 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $29.88 32.7% downside ($29.88 - $44.41) / $44.41 = -32.7% $1.66 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
1.66$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 26.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Applying a 15x P/E to adjusted EPS of $1.66, the base-case value is $24.90 per share. DDM cross-check: $22.75.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (21 analysts) $47.75
Analyst Range $43.00 – $54.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 48%

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 87%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 124% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.
Wall Street's average price target is $47.75 (from 21 analysts). Our estimate is 48% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples