Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation logo AUB - Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 10
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $45.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $46.00
LOW: $45.00
MEDIAN: $45.50
CONSENSUS: $45.50
UPSIDE: 8.28%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild
Trading 5.5% above fair value
Current Price $42.02
Bear Case $27.88 33.6% downside ($27.88 - $42.02) / $42.02 = -33.6% ROTCE 6.9% → 0.65x TBV
Fair Value $39.84 5.2% downside ($39.84 - $42.02) / $42.02 = -5.2% ROTCE 9.3% → 1.15x TBV
Bull Case $51.78 23.2% upside ($51.78 - $42.02) / $42.02 = 23.2% ROTCE 10.6% → 1.46x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

9.3%
8.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (9.3%) vs. cost of equity (8.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.03x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $45.50 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $39.84 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly