Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation logo AUB - Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 1
BUY 10
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $45.38 DETAILS
HIGH: $47.50
LOW: $44.00
MEDIAN: $45.00
CONSENSUS: $45.38
UPSIDE: 20.82%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Mild
Trading 5.6% below fair value
Current Price $37.56
Bear Case $27.86 25.8% downside ($27.86 - $37.56) / $37.56 = -25.8% ROTCE 6.9% → 0.63x TBV
Fair Value $39.81 6.0% upside ($39.81 - $37.56) / $37.56 = 6.0% ROTCE 9.3% → 1.12x TBV
Bull Case $51.74 37.8% upside ($51.74 - $37.56) / $37.56 = 37.8% ROTCE 10.6% → 1.42x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

9.3%
8.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (9.3%) vs. cost of equity (8.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 1.82x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $45.38 from 18 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $39.81 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly