AtriCure, Inc. logo ATRC - AtriCure, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $51.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $55.00
LOW: $44.00
MEDIAN: $55.00
CONSENSUS: $51.33
UPSIDE: 49.34%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Moderate
Trading 38.9% above fair value
Current Price $34.37
Bear Case $14.31 58.4% downside ($14.31 - $34.37) / $34.37 = -58.4% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $24.75 28.0% downside ($24.75 - $34.37) / $34.37 = -28.0% 21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $38.16 11.0% upside ($38.16 - $34.37) / $34.37 = 11.0% 27% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

20.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (21% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 47%
Implied Market Multiple 112.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 32.1% vs our 20.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $51.33 from 19 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $24.75 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $51.33 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 69% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions