AtriCure, Inc. logo ATRC - AtriCure, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 18
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $57.29 DETAILS
HIGH: $65.00
LOW: $50.00
MEDIAN: $55.00
CONSENSUS: $57.29
UPSIDE: 1.02%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 179.3% above fair value
Current Price $56.71
Bear Case $11.54 79.7% downside ($11.54 - $56.71) / $56.71 = -79.7% 13% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $20.31 64.2% downside ($20.31 - $56.71) / $56.71 = -64.2% 21% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $31.57 44.3% downside ($31.57 - $56.71) / $56.71 = -44.3% 27% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

20.9%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (21% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 47%
Implied Market Multiple 144.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 35.5% vs our 20.9% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 21% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $20.31 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (20 analysts) $57.29
Analyst Range $50.00 – $65.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 65%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $57.29 (from 20 analysts). Our estimate is 65% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions