Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. logo ATMU - Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $40.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $45.00
LOW: $34.00
MEDIAN: $42.00
CONSENSUS: $40.33
DOWNSIDE: 21.48%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 76.2% above fair value
Current Price $51.36
Bear Case $22.53 56.1% downside ($22.53 - $51.36) / $51.36 = -56.1% 4% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $29.15 43.3% downside ($29.15 - $51.36) / $51.36 = -43.3% 7% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $35.22 31.4% downside ($35.22 - $51.36) / $51.36 = -31.4% 10% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.4%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 32.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 15.4% vs our 7.4% base

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $40.33 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $29.15 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $40.33 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 35% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions