Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. logo ATMU - Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 3
HOLD 2
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $40.33 DETAILS
HIGH: $45.00
LOW: $34.00
MEDIAN: $42.00
CONSENSUS: $40.33
DOWNSIDE: 17.41%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 86.4% above fair value
Current Price $48.83
Bear Case $20.31 58.4% downside ($20.31 - $48.83) / $48.83 = -58.4% 4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $26.20 46.3% downside ($26.20 - $48.83) / $48.83 = -46.3% 7% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $31.59 35.3% downside ($31.59 - $48.83) / $48.83 = -35.3% 10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.4%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (7% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 32%
Implied Market Multiple 31.0x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $40.33 from 5 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $26.20 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $40.33 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 44% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions