Atkore Inc. logo ATKR - Atkore Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 4
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $79.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $82.00
LOW: $77.00
MEDIAN: $79.50
CONSENSUS: $79.50
DOWNSIDE: 6.19%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 23.7% below fair value
Current Price $84.75
Bear Case $86.83 2.5% upside ($86.83 - $84.75) / $84.75 = 2.5% 5% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $111.02 31.0% upside ($111.02 - $84.75) / $84.75 = 31.0% 8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $133.29 57.3% upside ($133.29 - $84.75) / $84.75 = 57.3% 10% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

7.7%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (8% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 33%
Implied Market Multiple 11.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $79.50 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $111.02 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $79.50 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 50% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions