Athene Holding Ltd. logo ATH - Athene Holding Ltd.

Inactive Ticker ATH is not actively trading. Quotes and analytics may be stale.
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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 25.0% below fair value
Current Price $83.33
Bear Case $74.45 10.7% downside ($74.45 - $83.33) / $83.33 = -10.7% ROTCE 12.4% → 0.87x TBV
Fair Value $111.11 33.3% upside ($111.11 - $83.33) / $83.33 = 33.3% ROTCE 16.5% → 1.30x TBV
Bull Case $133.10 59.7% upside ($133.10 - $83.33) / $83.33 = 59.7% ROTCE 19.0% → 1.55x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

16.5%
13.6%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (16.5%) vs. cost of equity (13.6%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.97x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 16.5% vs. 13.6% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 1.30x on $85.65 tangible book, implying $111.11 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly