Asure Software, Inc. logo ASUR - Asure Software, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
1
BUY 15
HOLD 1
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $14.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $20.00
LOW: $11.00
MEDIAN: $14.00
CONSENSUS: $14.75
UPSIDE: 61.73%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 63.5% below fair value
Current Price $9.12
Bear Case $13.82 51.5% upside ($13.82 - $9.12) / $9.12 = 51.5% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $24.97 173.7% upside ($24.97 - $9.12) / $9.12 = 173.7% 18% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $38.31 320.1% upside ($38.31 - $9.12) / $9.12 = 320.1% 23% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

18.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (18% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 45%
Implied Market Multiple 15.9x
Market is pricing in (growth) 5.9% vs our 18.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 18% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 11%, the base-case intrinsic value is $24.97 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (18 analysts) $14.75
Analyst Range $11.00 – $20.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 69%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $14.75 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 69% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions