Astrana Health, Inc. logo ASTH - Astrana Health, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 9
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $42.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $47.00
LOW: $37.00
MEDIAN: $41.00
CONSENSUS: $42.00
UPSIDE: 10.96%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 23.5% below fair value
Current Price $37.85
Bear Case $22.49 40.6% downside ($22.49 - $37.85) / $37.85 = -40.6% 11% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Fair Value $49.49 30.7% upside ($49.49 - $37.85) / $37.85 = 30.7% 19% stage 1 growth, 11% discount
Bull Case $82.60 118.2% upside ($82.60 - $37.85) / $37.85 = 118.2% 25% stage 1 growth, 11% discount

Adjust Assumptions

19.0%
11.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (19% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 46%
Implied Market Multiple 33.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $42.00 from 10 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $49.49 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Stock-based employee pay equals 172% of profits. This dilutes existing shareholders, so cash flow alone overstates what owners really earn.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions