AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag ASPN as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Aspen Aerogels, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for ASPN is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value ASPN?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from ASPN's most recent reported fundamentals.

ASPN - Aspen Aerogels, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $4.88 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current EPS × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 165.6% above fair value

Current Price $5.79

Bear Case $1.45 75.0% downside ($1.45 - $5.79) / $5.79 = -75.0% EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple

Fair Value $2.18 62.3% downside ($2.18 - $5.79) / $5.79 = -62.3% Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple

Bull Case $2.90 50.0% downside ($2.90 - $5.79) / $5.79 = -50.0% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x

Adjust Assumptions

EPS Multiple

7.5x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 34.1x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $4.88 from 23 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $2.18 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.

⚠ A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.

ℹ The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $4.88 (from 23 analysts). Our estimate is 74% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case