Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. logo ASO - Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 11
HOLD 11
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $58.67 DETAILS
HIGH: $78.00
LOW: $50.00
MEDIAN: $55.00
CONSENSUS: $58.67
UPSIDE: 26.24%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 48.3% below fair value
Current Price $46.47
Bear Case $78.61 69.1% upside ($78.61 - $46.47) / $46.47 = 69.1% $6.26 × 14x P/E
Fair Value $89.84 93.3% upside ($89.84 - $46.47) / $46.47 = 93.3% $6.26 × 16x P/E
Bull Case $101.07 117.5% upside ($101.07 - $46.47) / $46.47 = 117.5% $6.26 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

16.0x
6.26$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (16x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 7.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $58.67 from 22 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $89.84 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $58.67 (from 22 analysts). Our estimate is 71% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples