AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies ASML Holding N.V. as a Platform & Compounding FCF business and values it using Two-stage FCF DCF, then compares the result to the current market price to flag ASML as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is ASML Holding N.V.'s fair value?

Fair value for ASML comes from a Two-stage FCF DCF model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Platform & Compounding FCF classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value ASML?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. ASML was classified as Platform & Compounding FCF and is valued using Two-stage FCF DCF, built from ASML's most recent reported fundamentals.

ASML - ASML Holding N.V.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $2,305.75 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 80% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Mild

Trading 14.4% above fair value

Current Price $1737.17

Bear Case $810.24 53.4% downside ($810.24 - $1,737.17) / $1,737.17 = -53.4% 13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Fair Value $1,518.59 12.6% downside ($1,518.59 - $1,737.17) / $1,737.17 = -12.6% 22% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Bull Case $2,443.84 40.7% upside ($2,443.84 - $1,737.17) / $1,737.17 = 40.7% 29% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

DCF Stage 1 Growth Rate

22.0%

Discount Rate (WACC)

12.0%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (22% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 43%

Implied Market Multiple 52.1x

Market is pricing in (growth) 23.9% vs our 22.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 22% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $1518.59 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (45 analysts) $2305.75

Analyst Range $2000.00 – $2623.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 34%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $2305.75 (from 45 analysts). Our estimate is 34% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

ℹ Financial statements were converted from EUR into USD using EURUSD at 1.1385 USD per EUR.

Key Risks

P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions