Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. logo ASM - Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 4
HOLD 1
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $9.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $10.50
LOW: $7.50
MEDIAN: $9.00
CONSENSUS: $9.00
UPSIDE: 38.67%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 50% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 438.7% above fair value
Current Price $6.49
Bear Case $1.20 81.4% downside ($1.20 - $6.49) / $6.49 = -81.4% 3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $1.20 81.4% downside ($1.20 - $6.49) / $6.49 = -81.4% 3% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $1.25 80.8% downside ($1.25 - $6.49) / $6.49 = -80.8% 4% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

3.0%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (3% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 28%
Implied Market Multiple 105.5x
Market is pricing in (growth) 33.6% vs our 3.0% base

Plain-Language Summary

Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $1.20 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (5 analysts) $9.00
Analyst Range $7.50 – $10.50
Divergence from AlphaVal 87%

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $9.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 87% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions