ASM - Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd.
Price:
--
--
|
CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
|
PRICE TARGET:
$9.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$10.50
LOW:
$7.50
MEDIAN:
$9.00
CONSENSUS:
$9.00
UPSIDE:
38.67%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Platform & Compounding FCF
50% confidence
Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF
Adjust Assumptions
3.0%
12.0%
3.0%
Key Value Driver
FCF growth rate (3% base case)
Terminal Value % of EV
28%
Implied Market Multiple
105.5x
Market is pricing in (growth)
33.6%
vs our 3.0% base
Plain-Language Summary
Using a two-stage FCF DCF with 3% growth decelerating over 15 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case intrinsic value is $1.20 per share.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (5 analysts)
$9.00
Analyst Range
$7.50 – $10.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
87%
Warnings
Wall Street's average price target is $9.00 (from 5 analysts). Our estimate is 87% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
- Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
- Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions