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AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 78.6% below fair value
Current Price $50.11
Bear Case $214.89 328.8% upside ($214.89 - $50.11) / $50.11 = 328.8% ROTCE 20.0% → 3.67x TBV
Fair Value $234.17 367.3% upside ($234.17 - $50.11) / $50.11 = 367.3% ROTCE 25.0% → 4.00x TBV
Bull Case $234.17 367.3% upside ($234.17 - $50.11) / $50.11 = 367.3% ROTCE 30.0% → 4.00x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

60.4%
8.4%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (60.4%) vs. cost of equity (8.4%)

Implied Market Multiple 0.86x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 60.4% vs. 8.4% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 4.00x on $58.54 tangible book, implying $234.17 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly