AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Aris Mining Corporation as a Other Commodity Producers business and values it using FCF at Commodity Price Scenarios, then compares the result to the current market price to flag ARIS as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Aris Mining Corporation's fair value?

Fair value for ARIS comes from a FCF at Commodity Price Scenarios model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Other Commodity Producers classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value ARIS?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. ARIS was classified as Other Commodity Producers and is valued using FCF at Commodity Price Scenarios, built from ARIS's most recent reported fundamentals.

ARIS - Aris Mining Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $23.29 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Other Commodity Producers 80% confidence

Primary model: FCF at Commodity Price Scenarios

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong

Trading 277.6% above fair value

Current Price $20.64

Bear Case $2.78 86.5% downside ($2.78 - $20.64) / $20.64 = -86.5% FCF −30% × 12x

Fair Value $5.47 73.5% downside ($5.47 - $20.64) / $20.64 = -73.5% Current FCF × 15x

Bull Case $8.89 56.9% downside ($8.89 - $20.64) / $20.64 = -56.9% FCF +30% × 18x

Adjust Assumptions

FCF Price Sensitivity

0.0%

EV/FCF Multiple

15.0x

Key Value Driver

Commodity price outlook and production volume

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 52.2x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

At current commodity prices with a 15x EV/FCF multiple, intrinsic value is $5.47 per share. Range: $2.78 to $8.89.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (12 analysts) $23.29

Analyst Range $18.00 – $30.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 77%

Warnings

ℹ Demand trends (construction, electric vehicles, food production) matter more than supply headlines. Focus on who's buying the commodity and why.

⚠ Mines and reserves eventually run out. Standard models undercount this risk — the company must keep finding or buying new resources just to maintain its value.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $23.29 (from 12 analysts). Our estimate is 77% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

AISC vs. cash cost distinction: always use AISC for breakeven analysis
Single-asset companies carry significantly higher risk — widen scenario range
Mine permitting takes 10-20 years — growth optionality often priced in optimistically