AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page computes Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s fair value using a multi-method blend (DCF, comparable-multiples, and Graham-style intrinsic value), then compares it to the current market price to flag ARI as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for ARI is a model output combining discounted cash flow projections, peer-group multiples, and a Graham number floor. The live AlphaVal page shows the blended fair value alongside each method's individual estimate.

How does AlphaMadera value ARI?

AlphaVal uses three primary techniques: a five-year discounted-cash-flow projection with terminal multiple, peer-group multiple analysis (P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/S), and Graham's defensive-investor intrinsic-value formula. Inputs come from ARI's most recent reported fundamentals.

ARI - Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $12.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 50.9% below fair value

Current Price $10.31

Bear Case $17.31 67.9% upside ($17.31 - $10.31) / $10.31 = 67.9% $1.05 FFO × 18x

Fair Value $21.02 103.8% upside ($21.02 - $10.31) / $10.31 = 103.8% $1.05 FFO × 22x

Bull Case $24.73 139.8% upside ($24.73 - $10.31) / $10.31 = 139.8% $1.05 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

22.1x

FFO per Share

1.05$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.05) × default P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 9.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $12.00 from 13 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $21.02 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

⚠ Dividend yield of 111.5% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $12.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 94% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify