AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. as a Real Estate Investment Trust business and values it using P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple, then compares the result to the current market price to flag ARI as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.'s fair value?

Fair value for ARI comes from a P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's Real Estate Investment Trust classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value ARI?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. ARI was classified as Real Estate Investment Trust and is valued using P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple, built from ARI's most recent reported fundamentals.

ARI - Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $12.00 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong

Trading 70.4% below fair value

Current Price $6.90

Bear Case $19.17 177.8% upside ($19.17 - $6.90) / $6.90 = 177.8% $1.05 FFO × 18x

Fair Value $23.27 237.3% upside ($23.27 - $6.90) / $6.90 = 237.3% $1.05 FFO × 22x

Bull Case $27.38 296.8% upside ($27.38 - $6.90) / $6.90 = 296.8% $1.05 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

P/FFO Multiple

22.1x

FFO per Share

1.05$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.05) × default P/FFO multiple

Terminal Value % of EV

Implied Market Multiple 6.6x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.05 FFO/share with a 22x default REIT multiple, the base-case value is $23.27 per share. Dividend yield: 115.9%.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (13 analysts) $12.00

Analyst Range $10.50 – $13.50

Divergence from AlphaVal 94%

Warnings

⚠ Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.

⚠ Dividend yield of 115.9% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $12.00 (from 13 analysts). Our estimate is 94% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify