Arhaus, Inc. logo ARHS - Arhaus, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 7
HOLD 7
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $9.79 DETAILS
HIGH: $12.00
LOW: $8.00
MEDIAN: $9.50
CONSENSUS: $9.79
UPSIDE: 54.91%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Platform & Compounding FCF 85% confidence

Primary model: Two-stage FCF DCF

Valuation Signal Fair Value Moderate
Trading 17.7% below fair value
Current Price $6.32
Bear Case $4.57 27.6% downside ($4.57 - $6.32) / $6.32 = -27.6% 8% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Fair Value $7.68 21.5% upside ($7.68 - $6.32) / $6.32 = 21.5% 13% stage 1 growth, 12% discount
Bull Case $10.90 72.5% upside ($10.90 - $6.32) / $6.32 = 72.5% 16% stage 1 growth, 12% discount

Adjust Assumptions

12.6%
12.0%
3.0%

Key Value Driver

FCF growth rate (13% base case)

Terminal Value % of EV 37%
Implied Market Multiple 20.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a two-stage discounted cash flow model based on free cash flow. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $9.79 from 14 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $7.68 per share.

Warnings

Wall Street's average price target is $9.79 (from 14 analysts). Our estimate is 27% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E alone misleads — earnings depressed by growth investment
  • Cyclical or commodity businesses may be misclassified as platforms
  • Terminal value dominance suggests sensitivity to long-run assumptions