Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. logo ARE - Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 14
SELL 2
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $53.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $60.00
LOW: $50.00
MEDIAN: $52.50
CONSENSUS: $53.75
DOWNSIDE: 0.43%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 45.2% below fair value
Current Price $53.98
Bear Case $77.38 43.3% upside ($77.38 - $53.98) / $53.98 = 43.3% $8.11 FFO × 11x
Fair Value $98.55 82.6% upside ($98.55 - $53.98) / $53.98 = 82.6% $8.11 FFO × 14x
Bull Case $119.72 121.8% upside ($119.72 - $53.98) / $53.98 = 121.8% $8.11 FFO × 17x

Adjust Assumptions

13.9x
8.11$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($8.11) × office P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 6.7x

Plain-Language Summary

At $8.11 FFO/share with a 14x office REIT multiple, the base-case value is $98.55 per share. Dividend yield: 6.4%. DDM cross-check: $64.85.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (25 analysts) $53.75
Analyst Range $50.00 – $60.00
Divergence from AlphaVal 83%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 6.4% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $64.85 (34% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $53.75 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 83% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify