ARE - Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$53.75
DETAILS
HIGH:
$60.00
LOW:
$50.00
MEDIAN:
$52.50
CONSENSUS:
$53.75
DOWNSIDE:
0.43%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Office REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
13.9x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($8.11) × office P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
6.7x
Plain-Language Summary
At $8.11 FFO/share with a 14x office REIT multiple, the base-case value is $98.55 per share. Dividend yield: 6.4%. DDM cross-check: $64.85.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (25 analysts)
$53.75
Analyst Range
$50.00 – $60.00
Divergence from AlphaVal
83%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend yield of 6.4% is unusually high — make sure the company generates enough cash to keep paying it.
Dividend-based valuation: $64.85 (34% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $53.75 (from 25 analysts). Our estimate is 83% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify