Aptiv PLC logo APTV - Aptiv PLC

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 20
HOLD 13
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $89.75 DETAILS
HIGH: $110.00
LOW: $71.00
MEDIAN: $90.50
CONSENSUS: $89.75
UPSIDE: 56.47%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 80% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 26.4% below fair value
Current Price $57.36
Bear Case $68.21 18.9% upside ($68.21 - $57.36) / $57.36 = 18.9% $4.27 × 15x P/E
Fair Value $77.95 35.9% upside ($77.95 - $57.36) / $57.36 = 35.9% $4.27 × 17x P/E
Bull Case $87.69 52.9% upside ($87.69 - $57.36) / $57.36 = 52.9% $4.27 × 19x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

17.1x
4.27$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (17x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 13.4x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $89.75 from 33 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $77.95 per share.

Warnings

The company's reported profits differ from official accounting profits by 470%. Check what costs are being left out of the adjusted number.
The company pays out 117% of its profits as dividends. That leaves little cushion — the dividend could be cut if business slows down.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples