Digital Turbine, Inc. logo APPS - Digital Turbine, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 5
HOLD 6
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $32.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $40.00
LOW: $10.00
MEDIAN: $40.00
CONSENSUS: $32.50
UPSIDE: 614.29%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Distressed or Transitioning 75% confidence

Primary model: Current EPS × Depressed Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 43.3% below fair value
Current Price $4.55
Bear Case $5.34 17.3% upside ($5.34 - $4.55) / $4.55 = 17.3% EPS continues to decline, 5x multiple
Fair Value $8.03 76.4% upside ($8.03 - $4.55) / $4.55 = 76.4% Current EPS stabilizes, 8x multiple
Bull Case $10.72 135.6% upside ($10.72 - $4.55) / $4.55 = 135.6% Credible recovery, multiple re-rates to 10x

Adjust Assumptions

7.5x

Key Value Driver

Whether the core business model is intact or structurally impaired

Implied Market Multiple 17.8x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Current EPS × Depressed Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $32.50 from 11 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $8.03 per share.

Warnings

Don't assume past cash flow levels will return — the company's troubles may have permanently reduced its ability to generate profits.
A stock can look cheap on paper and still lose half its value if the underlying business is permanently damaged.
The wide range between our best and worst cases is intentional — pretending to know a precise value for a troubled company would be misleading.
Debt per share ($3.15) is more than half the stock price. With this much debt on a struggling business, the paths to recovery for shareholders are narrow.
Wall Street's average price target is $32.50 (from 11 analysts). Our estimate is 94% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Bullish DCF projections are fundamentally unknowable for distressed companies
  • M&A speculation can floor the stock above intrinsic value temporarily
  • Management credibility is a key input — new CEO expands the bull case