AlphaMadera's AlphaVal page classifies Appian Corporation as a High-Growth Software business and values it using Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF, then compares the result to the current market price to flag APPN as undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued.

What is Appian Corporation's fair value?

Fair value for APPN comes from a Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF model -- the approach AlphaVal selected for this company's High-Growth Software classification. The live AlphaVal page shows bear, base, and bull scenarios alongside the key assumption behind each.

How does AlphaMadera value APPN?

AlphaVal routes each company to one of ten valuation archetypes based on its business model. APPN was classified as High-Growth Software and is valued using Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF, built from APPN's most recent reported fundamentals.

APPN - Appian Corporation

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS | PRICE TARGET: $30.50 DETAILS

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

High-Growth Software 80% confidence

Primary model: Revenue × Terminal Margin DCF

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate

Trading 30.2% below fair value

Current Price $34.76

Bear Case $23.55 32.2% downside ($23.55 - $34.76) / $34.76 = -32.2% 12% rev growth, 17% terminal margin

Fair Value $49.77 43.2% upside ($49.77 - $34.76) / $34.76 = 43.2% 21% rev growth, 23% terminal margin

Bull Case $79.85 129.7% upside ($79.85 - $34.76) / $34.76 = 129.7% 27% rev growth, 26% terminal margin

Adjust Assumptions

Revenue Growth Rate

21.0%

Terminal FCF Margin

23.0%

Discount Rate

12.0%

Key Value Driver

Revenue growth (21%) × margin expansion to 23%

Terminal Value % of EV 62%

Implied Market Multiple 3.8x

Market is pricing in (growth)

Plain-Language Summary

Projecting 21% revenue growth with FCF margins expanding from 9% to 23% over 10 years, discounted at 12%, the base-case value is $49.77 per share.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (19 analysts) $30.50

Analyst Range $23.00 – $42.00

Divergence from AlphaVal 63%

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $30.50 (from 19 analysts). Our estimate is 63% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

Current FCF misleads — the model values future margins, not today's cash
SBC dilution is the hidden tax: 2-4% annual share growth compounds fast
Revenue deceleration is inevitable — the question is when and how steep