Apogee Enterprises, Inc. logo APOG - Apogee Enterprises, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 1
HOLD 4
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $70.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $95.00
LOW: $46.00
MEDIAN: $70.50
CONSENSUS: $70.50
UPSIDE: 96.49%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Cyclical & Capital-Intensive 80% confidence

Primary model: Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 41.1% below fair value
Current Price $35.88
Bear Case $44.67 24.5% upside ($44.67 - $35.88) / $35.88 = 24.5% $3.89 × 14x + net cash
Fair Value $60.87 69.6% upside ($60.87 - $35.88) / $35.88 = 69.6% $3.89 × 18x + net cash
Bull Case $77.07 114.8% upside ($77.07 - $35.88) / $35.88 = 114.8% $3.89 × 22x + net cash

Adjust Assumptions

18.0x
3.89$

Key Value Driver

Through-cycle normalized EPS ($3.89)

Implied Market Multiple 9.2x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses Normalized Earnings × Cycle Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $70.50 from 6 analysts, using a 20% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $60.87 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Price-to-book value of 4.7x is above the normal range for this type of business (0.7x-2.0x). The stock may already price in a strong cycle.

Key Risks

  • Standard 10-year DCF produces unreliable terminal values for cyclicals
  • 'Cheap' P/E at cycle peak is the most common value trap — normalize first
  • Captive finance subsidiaries have different risk profiles from manufacturing