Apollo Global Management, Inc. logo APO-PA - Apollo Global Management, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 7
HOLD 5
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Banks, Insurers & Asset Managers 85% confidence

Primary model: P/Tangible Book × ROE Quality

Valuation Signal Undervalued Strong
Trading 65.2% below fair value
Current Price $66.21
Bear Case $133.22 101.2% upside ($133.22 - $66.21) / $66.21 = 101.2% ROTCE 19.3% → 1.77x TBV
Fair Value $190.32 187.4% upside ($190.32 - $66.21) / $66.21 = 187.4% ROTCE 25.0% → 2.51x TBV
Bull Case $247.42 273.7% upside ($247.42 - $66.21) / $66.21 = 273.7% ROTCE 29.6% → 2.96x TBV

Adjust Assumptions

25.7%
12.7%

Key Value Driver

ROTCE (25.7%) vs. cost of equity (12.7%)

Implied Market Multiple 2.19x

Plain-Language Summary

With ROTCE of 25.7% vs. 12.7% cost of equity, fair P/TBV is 2.51x on $30.22 tangible book, implying $190.32 per share.

Warnings

⚠ Traditional cash flow models don't work well for banks — lending activity distorts how much cash the business actually generates.
⚠ Common valuation shortcuts don't apply here — for banks, interest payments are a core business cost, not overhead.

Key Risks

  • Book value quality matters as much as level — check loan loss reserves
  • Interest rate sensitivity creates non-linear earnings surprises
  • Insurance reserving is actuarial, not financial — errors emerge slowly