APLE - Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Buy
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$16.00
DETAILS
HIGH:
$16.00
LOW:
$16.00
MEDIAN:
$16.00
CONSENSUS:
$16.00
DOWNSIDE:
3.38%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
22.1x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.56) × default P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
10.6x
Plain-Language Summary
Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $16.00 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $23.42 per share.
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
The 1.9% yield is low for a real estate company — investors are paying up because they expect above-average growth.
Dividend-based valuation: $5.96 (77% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $16.00 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 62% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify