Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc. logo APLE - Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Hold DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 8
HOLD 10
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $16.90 DETAILS
HIGH: $18.50
LOW: $16.00
MEDIAN: $17.00
CONSENSUS: $16.90
UPSIDE: 2.11%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 36.1% below fair value
Current Price $16.55
Bear Case $21.38 29.2% upside ($21.38 - $16.55) / $16.55 = 29.2% $1.56 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $25.90 56.5% upside ($25.90 - $16.55) / $16.55 = 56.5% $1.56 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $30.43 83.9% upside ($30.43 - $16.55) / $16.55 = 83.9% $1.56 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.1x
1.56$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.56) × default P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 10.6x

Plain-Language Summary

At $1.56 FFO/share with a 22x default REIT multiple, the base-case value is $25.90 per share. Dividend yield: 1.9%. DDM cross-check: $5.96.

Analyst Consensus (External Reference)

Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.

Average Target (18 analysts) $16.90
Analyst Range $16.00 – $18.50
Divergence from AlphaVal 53%

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
The 1.9% yield is low for a real estate company — investors are paying up because they expect above-average growth.
Dividend-based valuation: $5.96 (77% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $16.90 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 53% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify