Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc. logo APLE - Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 8
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $16.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $16.00
LOW: $16.00
MEDIAN: $16.00
CONSENSUS: $16.00
DOWNSIDE: 3.38%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 29.3% below fair value
Current Price $16.56
Bear Case $19.34 16.8% upside ($19.34 - $16.56) / $16.56 = 16.8% $1.56 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $23.42 41.5% upside ($23.42 - $16.56) / $16.56 = 41.5% $1.56 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $27.52 66.2% upside ($27.52 - $16.56) / $16.56 = 66.2% $1.56 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.1x
1.56$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.56) × default P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 10.6x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $16.00 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $23.42 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
The 1.9% yield is low for a real estate company — investors are paying up because they expect above-average growth.
Dividend-based valuation: $5.96 (77% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $16.00 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 62% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify