Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc. logo APLE - Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY
0
BUY 9
HOLD 7
SELL 1
STRONG
SELL
0
| PRICE TARGET: $15.00 DETAILS
HIGH: $16.00
LOW: $14.00
MEDIAN: $15.00
CONSENSUS: $15.00
UPSIDE: 3.66%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Real Estate Investment Trust 85% confidence

Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple

Valuation Signal Undervalued Moderate
Trading 37.6% below fair value
Current Price $14.47
Bear Case $19.13 32.2% upside ($19.13 - $14.47) / $14.47 = 32.2% $1.56 FFO × 18x
Fair Value $23.17 60.2% upside ($23.17 - $14.47) / $14.47 = 60.2% $1.56 FFO × 22x
Bull Case $27.23 88.2% upside ($27.23 - $14.47) / $14.47 = 88.2% $1.56 FFO × 26x

Adjust Assumptions

22.1x
1.56$

Key Value Driver

FFO/share ($1.56) × default P/FFO multiple

Implied Market Multiple 9.3x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $15.00 from 17 analysts, using a 25% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $23.17 per share.

Warnings

Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
Dividend-based valuation: $5.96 (77% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $15.00 (from 17 analysts). Our estimate is 73% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
  • Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
  • FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify