APLE - Apple Hospitality REIT, Inc.
Price:
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CONSENSUS:
Hold
DETAILS
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PRICE TARGET:
$16.90
DETAILS
HIGH:
$18.50
LOW:
$16.00
MEDIAN:
$17.00
CONSENSUS:
$16.90
UPSIDE:
2.11%
AlphaVal
Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value
Real Estate Investment Trust
85% confidence
Primary model: P/FFO × Default REIT Multiple
Adjust Assumptions
22.1x
$
Key Value Driver
FFO/share ($1.56) × default P/FFO multiple
Implied Market Multiple
10.6x
Plain-Language Summary
At $1.56 FFO/share with a 22x default REIT multiple, the base-case value is $25.90 per share. Dividend yield: 1.9%. DDM cross-check: $5.96.
Analyst Consensus (External Reference)
Never blended into the bear/base/bull estimates above -- shown only as an outside comparison.
Average Target (18 analysts)
$16.90
Analyst Range
$16.00 – $18.50
Divergence from AlphaVal
53%
Warnings
Standard profit figures are misleading for real estate companies — large non-cash accounting charges make profits look artificially low. Dividend yield and funds from operations are better measures.
The 1.9% yield is low for a real estate company — investors are paying up because they expect above-average growth.
Dividend-based valuation: $5.96 (77% below our primary estimate). Large gaps suggest the dividend may not fully reflect the company's value.
Wall Street's average price target is $16.90 (from 18 analysts). Our estimate is 53% above the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.
Key Risks
- P/E and EV/EBITDA are structurally wrong for REITs — use P/FFO and NAV
- Interest rate sensitivity: REIT multiples compress when rates rise
- FFO approximation (NI + D&A) may include gains on property sales — verify