Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. logo APD - Air Products and Chemicals, Inc.

Price: -- -- | CONSENSUS: Buy DETAILS
STRONG
BUY 0
BUY 23
HOLD 19
SELL 0
STRONG
SELL 0
| PRICE TARGET: $318.50 DETAILS
HIGH: $360.00
LOW: $265.00
MEDIAN: $315.00
CONSENSUS: $318.50
UPSIDE: 10.03%
AlphaVal

AlphaVal

Deterministic, archetype-aware fair value

Stable Earnings Power 40% confidence

Primary model: P/Adj-EPS × Normalized Multiple

Valuation Signal Overvalued Strong
Trading 43.7% above fair value
Current Price $289.47
Bear Case $161.11 44.3% downside ($161.11 - $289.47) / $289.47 = -44.3% $10.08 × 12x P/E
Fair Value $201.39 30.4% downside ($201.39 - $289.47) / $289.47 = -30.4% $10.08 × 15x P/E
Bull Case $241.67 16.5% downside ($241.67 - $289.47) / $289.47 = -16.5% $10.08 × 18x P/E

Adjust Assumptions

15.0x
10.08$

Key Value Driver

Normalized P/E multiple (15x base case)

Implied Market Multiple 28.7x

Plain-Language Summary

Our base-case estimate uses a valuation based on adjusted earnings per share and a normalized price-to-earnings multiple. We then blend that result with the average analyst price target of $318.50 from 42 analysts, using a 30% weight on analyst consensus. That produces an estimated intrinsic value of $201.39 per share.

Warnings

ℹ Wall Street's average price target is $318.50 (from 42 analysts). Our estimate is 53% below the consensus -- consider that gap carefully.

Key Risks

  • Growth DCF inappropriate — terminal value assumptions dominate
  • EV/EBITDA misleading for regulated businesses where capex is mandated
  • Regulatory risk is a fat tail not visible in normal multiples